Saturday, September 1, 2007
Intuitive Wisdom & Going With What We Know
I came across this fairly provocative statement in a New York Times article on Gird Gigerenzer's research on the nature of intuitive thinking when it comes to investing:
"(T)he intuitive wisdom of the semi-ignorant outperformed the calculations of the experts."
Apparently, the "go with what you know" rule of thumb leads to success in stock market picks. Researchers used stock picks from 360 random pedestrians in Chicago and Munich, none of whom were savvy about investing, and used the most frequently recognized companies to make a stock portfolio.
The result? This portfolio influenced by amateurs outperformed the stock markets in the U.S. and Germany as well as well-known mutual funds.
Having seen a lot of strategic projects unfold with and without the help of "experts" (often known as consultants or advisors), the best outcomes I've seen involved the influence of those who honored gut instincts about what was most important.
Whatever their roles or titles, these people were leaders who positively influenced success using intuition, leaders who trusted themselves and did not try to get to a decision through pure analysis.
For example, in branding initiatives in the high tech industry in the mid-1990s, I saw outside experts practically boil the ocean analyzing possibilities and meanings of surveys and focus group outcomes. Executives labored over many choices, spent a lot of money, and ended up with an over-analyzed set of decisions. Ultimately (and not too long after these branding initiatives), one company lost its autonomy in a hostile takeover and the other folded.
Meanwhile, another company with so-called schlockier branding was intuitively paying attention to all the right things with both customers and suitors and sold for many millions.
When it comes to decision-making, intellect counts, but so also does intuition, that ineffable combination of emotion and gut instinct that helps us know and "go with what we know."
If you're facing a major decision and it's gnawing on you in the wee hours of the night or waking you up early, chances are you're trying to make your decision with your head and would do well to learn to interpret versus dismiss the whisperings of your heart and the wrenching in your gut.
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